Flash Point

On Friday, the UN Security Council convened an informal closed door session on the Kashmir issue. This is the first time this issue has been discussed at the UN Security Council in five decades. The outcome though of the UNSC meeting will not be a formal pronouncement as the consultations are informal in nature.

India and Pakistan did not attend the meeting, which was open only to the five permanent members and 10 non-permanent members

Speaking to the media, The Chinese ambassador to the United Nations, Zhang Jun, said on Friday that members of the Security Council generally feel India and Pakistan should both refrain from unilateral action over Kashmir.

Indian envoy to the UN Syed Akbaruddin said India's position was and remains that matters related to Article 370 of the Constitution are entirely an internal matter of India and these have no external ramifications.

India told Pakistan that it has to stop terrorism to start talks

"Stop terror to start talks," Syed Akbaruddin asserted.

Pakistan's ambassador to the UN, Maleeha Lodhi said the voices of the people of Jammu and Kashmir were heard at the meeting of the UN Security Council, the highest diplomatic forum of the world.

Lodhi said the very fact this meeting had taken place is "testimony to the fact that this is an internationally recognized dispute".

Russia's deputy permanent representative, Dimitry Polyanskiy told reporters that Moscow's view is that it is a "bilateral issue" between India and Pakistan.

The Curfew

After India revoked article 370 & 35-A, Jammu & Kashmir have been on lock down. No internet or telephone access to the valley, with a strict enforcement by the Indian Security Forces has completely blocked the area from the world. No news is coming out, except for bits and pieces. India maintains there position that this was a due to security concerns and precautionary measures to safe guarding civilian lives rest with the federal government and local administrators on ground.  India's UN envoy Syed Akbaruddin urged the international media to let the administrators and law enforcement, who are on ground to make the decisions and give India the time needed to ensure peace in the Jammu & Kashmir.

There is great uncertainty in the international community as to how long this curfew and communications blackout will remain. The OIC has issued a statement calling for an end to the curfew and stressed concerns over the human rights violation in the region.

Flash Point

Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, in a press conference held yesterday stressed the importance and the gravity of the current ongoing situation in Indian Occupied Kashmir, terming it as a possible flash point between to nuclear armed neighbors.

This statement came after India's defence minister Rajnath Singh tweeted, “Pokhran is the area which witnessed Atal Ji’s firm resolve to make India a nuclear power and yet remain firmly committed to the doctrine of ‘No First Use’. India has strictly adhered to this doctrine. What happens in future depends on the circumstances.”

Earlier this week, Pakistan's Prime Minister while addressing the legislative Assembly of Pakistan's Kashmir said that we will respond to any form of India's aggression with a stronger show of power, raising the temperature of the situation.

What's next?

Pakistan considers the UNSC meeting on Kashmir as a diplomatic achievement, though it does understand that this the beginning of a long diplomatic battle, where it will have to face many obstacles, considering how strong India currently is diplomatically and economically compared to Pakistan.

India, on the other hand feel that the international community understands and respects their position and that Jammu & Kashmir is an internal matter.

Unfortunately, as the curfew continues there is concern that people in the valley will get frustrated. That will lead to a rise in protest and a rise in the security measures from New Delhi. If New Delhi continues with this approach and the people of the valley come out to the streets, the situation will get extremely dire, and causalities are likely to happen. In that situation it will be interesting to see how long New Delhi can continue to convince the international community that they have everything under control. Islamabad also does not want the situation to break lose. The commitment to the diplomatic approach will be tested if there is chaos in the valley.

By no exaggeration, the issue of Kashmir can become a possible flash point between Pakistan and India, if the temperatures are not lowered. The international community, while keeping an eye on this will have to address this issue one way or the other before it blows up.

Has India Gone Into Panic Mode?

On Monday afternoon in Washing D.C, President Trump managed to create a panic 7,481 miles away in New Delhi with a revelation: "I was with Prime Minister Modi two weeks ago. He actually said, ‘Would you like to be a mediator or arbitrator?’ I said, ‘Where?’ He said, ‘Kashmir.’”

Sat next to him was Prime Minister Imran Khan of Pakistan, who couldn't wash the smile of his face and to be fair, I doubt he tried.

Trump then added: “I’d love to be a mediator.”

Across in New Delhi, where night had set in, everyone was taken back by what had just happened. In a matter of seconds, Raveesh Kumar, a spokesman for India’s Ministry of External Affairs tweeted, "No such request has been made".

For a time being calm set in when the official press release of the meeting between Prime Minister Imran Khan and President Donald Trump was released. There was no mention of Kashmir, neither was there any mention of India. Cross boarder terrorism on the other was included.

Unfortunately for New Delhi, the calm didn't last long. The morning after the press conference, the opposition in the lower and upper house of India's parliament, took the Indian government to the cleaners. They repeatedly asked for a clarification on the matter. The country’s external affairs minister, S. Jaishankar, read out a statement in the upper house of parliament, identical to what his spokesman had tweeted earlier: “I repeat, no such request was made by the prime minister to the U.S. president.”

While the Indian opposition is trying to pressure the government on this matter, the Indian media has called out President Trump as a liar, clearing Prime Minister Modi of inviting a third party into talks between Pakistan.

Trump's Chief Economic Advisor Larry Kudlow told reporters at the White House when a journalist following up on the president's remarks asked if it was made up, "It is a very rude question". He added, "The president doesn't make things up".

Unfortunately for the White House, a number of U.S. lawmakers, came out against President Trump's statement and tried to smooth waters between India and United States.

Rep. Brad Sherman, a Democratic member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, tweeted,
"Everyone who knows anything about foreign policy in South Asia knows that India consistently opposes third-party mediation in Kashmir. Everyone knows PM Modi would never suggest such a thing. Trump’s statement is amateurish and delusional. And embarrassing. I just apologized to Indian Ambassador Harsh Shringla for Trump's amateurish and embarrassing mistake."

And Alice Wells, the acting assistant secretary of state for South and Central Asian affairs, took back Trump’s comments through a tweet, “Kashmir is a bilateral issue for both parties to discuss.”

All this raises a number of questions.

What did Prime Minister and President Trump discuss when they met at the G-20 summit earlier this year? 

The rational argument that can be made is that Trump may have exaggerated the discussion he had with Prime Minister Modi. Unfortunately, the reality does not matter now. It is an extremely difficult situation that the two countries (India and United States) find themselves in. It also makes sense, considering the situation and the intensity of the relations why Prime Minister Modi has till now mot commented on this. It'll be hard to see how the two can get out of this without damaging the relationship between the two countries, considering this revelation will stay relevant in time till it is properly addressed.

Will this affect the current relationship between India and United States, considering they are already in a trade war?

It most definitely will have an affect. What will be interesting to see will be the nature and the level of the said affect. Unfortunately, the remarks were made in a press conference regarding Kashmir, an issue that Pakistan is keen on making relevant internationally. How India and United States deal with this and how much can the India media continue to target President Trump before the United States gets annoyed, time will tell. It also will be interesting to observe whether President Trump sticks to his statement or finds a political answer to what he said. In the latter case, things will settle down, though President Trump is not much known for settling things down.

Is India's panic warranted?

It most certainly is. Kashmir has been a concern for the two nuclear arm neighbours since Independence but India has stuck to its stance of bilateral talks and no third party involvement since the Shimla agreement took place. The reason for that is, if a third party was to get involved, it may prove to be disastrous for India. The Human Rights Commission as well as many organizations have repeatedly called out India for their human rights abuse in Kashmir. India also doesn't recognize Kashmir as disputed but considers it as a part of itself. To have a mediator on this issue would be India accepting that this is indeed a disputed territory. And any solution but Kashmir being a part of India, is not acceptable to India, which becomes highly unlikely as the only solution with a third party mediator present.

Can this be considered as a win for Pakistan?

The only obvious winner from this is Pakistan. It is hard to see if Pakistan had anything to do directly with this, but they've come out from that press conference unscathed, but have made Kashmir a talking point once again in the international community and have possibly poked a hole in India-US relations that are already in a trade-war between each other.